Mai i te tau 2021 ki te tau 2022, i tere te tipu o te mākete haurua-ā-ringa o te ao nā te putanga mai o ngā tono motuhake i puta mai i te pakarutanga o te COVID-19. Heoi, i te mutunga o ngā tono motuhake i puta mai i te mate urutā COVID-19 i te haurua whakamutunga o te tau 2022, ā, i taka ki roto i tētahi o ngā hinganga ōhanga tino kino rawa atu i roto i te hītori i te tau 2023.
Heoi, e matapaetia ana ka tino heke te Paheketanga Nui i te tau 2023, ā, e matapaetia ana ka ora anō te ōhanga i tēnei tau (2024).
Ina hoki, ina tirohia ngā tuku haurua-hauwhā puta noa i ngā momo rerekē, kua hipa kē a Logic i te tihi i puta mai i ngā tono motuhake o te COVID-19, ā, kua whakatūria he taumata tiketike hou i roto i te hītori. Hei tāpiri, tera pea ka eke a Mos Micro me Analog ki ngā taumata tiketike i roto i te hītori i te tau 2024, nā te mea kāore i te nui te hekenga i puta mai i te mutunga o ngā tono motuhake o te COVID-19 (Pikitia 1).
I roto i ēnei, i pāngia a Mos Memory e te hekenga nui, kātahi ka tae ki te taumata raro i te hauwhā tuatahi (Q1) o te tau 2023, ā, ka tīmata tana haerenga ki te whakaora. Heoi, te āhua nei he nui tonu te wā e hiahiatia ana kia eke ki te tihi o ngā tono motuhake a te COVID-19. Heoi, ki te eke a Mos Memory ki tōna tihi, ka eke te tapeke o ngā tukunga haurua-ā-ira ki tētahi taumata tiketike hou o mua. Ki taku whakaaro, ki te puta tēnei, ka taea te kī kua tino ora te mākete haurua-ā-ira.
Heoi, ki te tirohia ngā panonitanga o ngā tukunga haurua-ira, e kitea ana he hē tēnei tirohanga. Nā te mea, ahakoa kua tino ora ake ngā tukunga o Mos Memory, e ora ana, kei te tino ora tonu, kei te tino iti tonu ngā tukunga o Logic, i eke ki ngā taumata teitei o mua. Arā, kia ora ake ai te mākete haurua-ira o te ao, me tino piki ake ngā tukunga o ngā waeine arorau.
Nō reira, i roto i tēnei tuhinga, ka tātarihia e mātou ngā tukunga haurua-ā-ira me ngā rahinga mō ngā momo haurua-ā-ira me ngā haurua-ā-ira katoa. Muri iho, ka whakamahia e mātou te rerekētanga i waenga i ngā tukunga Logic me ngā tukunga hei tauira hei whakaatu i te āhua o te whakaroa o ngā tukunga wafer a TSMC ahakoa te tere o te whakaoranga. Hei tāpiri, ka whakaaroaro mātou he aha i puta ai tēnei rerekētanga, ā, ka kī pea ka whakaroahia te whakaoranga katoa o te mākete haurua-ā-ira o te ao tae noa ki te tau 2025.
Hei whakamutunga, ko te āhua o te whakaoranga o te mākete hiko haurua-waea i tēnei wā he "mānumanu" nā ngā GPU a NVIDIA, he tino teitei ngā utu. Nō reira, te āhua nei kāore te mākete hiko haurua-waea e tino ora ake kia tae rā anō ngā whare hanga hiko pēnei i a TSMC ki tōna kaha katoa, ā, kia eke hoki ngā tukunga a Logic ki ngā taumata tiketike hou o mua.
Te Tātaritanga o te Uara Tukunga me te Rahinga o te Ārahi-Haupapa
E whakaatu ana te Pikitia 2 i ngā ia o te uara me te rahinga o ngā tuku mō ngā momo haurua-ā-ira me te mākete haurua-ā-ira katoa.
I eke te nui o ngā uta a Mos Micro ki tōna taumata teitei i te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2021, ā, i tae ki raro rawa i te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2023, ā, ka tīmata te ora ake. I tētahi atu taha, kāore i kitea he rerekētanga nui o te nui o ngā uta, ā, tata tonu te kore e neke mai i te hauwhā tuatoru ki te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2023, me te hekenga iti.
I tīmata te hekenga nui o te uara tuku a Mos Memory mai i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2022, ā, i tae ki te taumata raro i te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2023, ā, ka tīmata te piki, engari i hoki mai ki te 40% noa iho o te uara tihi i te hauwhā tuawhā o taua tau anō. I taua wā, kua hoki mai te rahinga tuku ki te 94% o te taumata tihi. Arā, ko te tere whakamahinga wheketere o ngā kaihanga mahara e kiia ana kua tata ki te kaha katoa. Ko te pātai, e hia te pikinga o ngā utu DRAM me NAND flash.
I eke te nui o ngā uta a Logic ki tōna taumata teitei i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2022, ā, i tae ki tōna taumata raro i te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2023, kātahi ka hoki anō ki tōna taumata teitei, tae atu ki tētahi taumata teitei hou i te hauwhā tuawhā o taua tau anō. I tētahi atu taha, i eke te uara o ngā uta ki tōna taumata teitei i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2022, kātahi ka heke ki te 65% o te uara teitei i te hauwhā tuatoru o te tau 2023, ā, i noho pūmau tonu i te hauwhā tuawhā o taua tau anō. Arā, he rerekētanga nui kei waenganui i te whanonga o te uara uta me te nui o ngā uta i roto i a Logic.
I eke te nui o ngā utaina anaro ki tōna taumata teitei i te hauwhā tuatoru o te tau 2022, ā, i tae ki tōna taumata raro i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2023, ā, kua mau tonu te uara mai i taua wā. I tētahi atu taha, i muri i tōna taumata teitei i te hauwhā tuatoru o te tau 2022, ka heke tonu te uara o ngā utaina tae noa ki te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2023.
Hei whakamutunga, i tino heke te uara whānui o te tukunga haurua-ā-ira mai i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2022, ā, i tino heke i te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2023, ā, ka tīmata te piki, ka ora anō ki te 96% o te uara tihi i te hauwhā tuawhā o taua tau anō. I tētahi atu taha, i tino heke anō hoki te rahinga tukunga mai i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2022, ā, i tino heke i te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2023, engari kua noho pūmau tonu mai i taua wā, ki te 75% o te uara tihi.
Mai i ngā kōrero o runga ake nei, te āhua nei ko te Mahara Mos te wāhi raruraru mēnā ko te rahinga tuku anake e whakaarohia ana, nā te mea kua hoki mai ki te 40% noa iho o te uara tihi. Heoi, ki te tirohia he tirohanga whānui ake, ka kite tātou he āwangawanga nui a Logic, ahakoa kua eke ki ngā taumata tiketike o mua o te rahinga tuku, kua noho tonu te uara tuku ki te 65% o te uara tihi. Ko te pānga o tēnei rerekētanga i waenga i te rahinga tuku me te uara o Logic te āhua nei ka horapa ki te mara haurua-ira katoa.
Hei whakarāpopototanga, ko te whakaoranga o te mākete haurua-ā-ao e whakawhirinaki ana ki te pikinga o ngā utu o te Mahara Mos me te pikinga nui o te rahinga tuku o ngā waeine Logic. I te pikinga tonu o ngā utu DRAM me NAND, ko te take nui ko te whakanui ake i te rahinga tuku o ngā waeine Logic.
Hei muri mai, ka whakamāramahia e mātou te whanonga o te rahinga tuku a TSMC me ngā tuku wafer hei whakaatu i te rerekētanga i waenga i te rahinga tuku a Logic me ngā tuku wafer.
Te Uara Tukunga ā-Hauwhā a TSMC me ngā Tukunga Wafer
E whakaatu ana te Pikitia 3 i te wehewehenga o ngā hoko a TSMC mā te pona me te ia o ngā hoko o ngā tukanga 7nm me runga ake i te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2023.
Kei te tū te TSMC i te 7nm me tua atu hei pona matatau. I te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2023, ko te 7nm te 17%, ko te 5nm te 35%, me te 3nm te 15%, ko te katoa o te 67% o ngā pona matatau. Hei tāpiri, kua piki haere ngā hokonga hauwhā o ngā pona matatau mai i te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2021, ā, i heke iho i te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2022, engari i tino heke iho, ā, ka tīmata anō te piki ake i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2023, ka eke ki te taumata teitei hou i te hauwhā tuawhā o taua tau anō.
Arā, ki te tirohia te mahi hokohoko o ngā pūnga matatau, he pai te mahi a TSMC. Nā, me pēhea te whiwhinga hokohoko ā-hauwhā me ngā tuku wafer a TSMC (Pikitia 4)?
He rite tonu te tūtohi o te uara tuku ā-hauwhā a TSMC me ngā tuku wafer. I eke ki tōna taumata teitei i te wā o te mirumiru IT o te tau 2000, i heke iho i muri i te ohorere Lehman o te tau 2008, ā, i haere tonu te heke i muri i te pahūtanga o te mirumiru mahara o te tau 2018.
Heoi, he rerekē te whanonga i muri i te tihi o te tono motuhake i te hauwhā tuatoru o te tau 2022. I eke te uara o te tuku ki te $20.2 piriona, kātahi ka heke tere engari ka tīmata te hoki ki te taumata teitei i muri i te hekenga ki te $15.7 piriona i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2023, tae atu ki te $19.7 piriona i te hauwhā tuawhā o taua tau anō, arā, 97% o te uara tihi.
I tētahi atu taha, ko te nui o ngā tukunga wafer ia hauwhā i eke ki te 3.97 miriona wafer i te hauwhā tuatoru o te tau 2022, kātahi ka heke iho, tae noa ki te 2.92 miriona wafer i te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2023, engari i noho pūmau tonu i muri mai. Ahakoa i te hauwhā tuawhā o taua tau, ahakoa i tino heke te maha o ngā wafer i tukuna mai i te tihi, i noho tonu ki te 2.96 miriona wafer, he hekenga neke atu i te 1 miriona wafer mai i te tihi.
Ko Logic te mea tino rongonui i hangaia e TSMC mō ngā hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2023. I eke ngā hokonga o ngā pona matatau a TSMC i te hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2023 ki tētahi taumata tiketike hou i roto i te hītori, ā, kua hoki mai ngā hokonga katoa ki te 97% o te tihi o mua. Heoi, he iti iho i te 1 miriona ngā tukunga wafer ā-hauwhā i tērā i te wā tihi. Arā, ko te reiti whakamahinga wheketere katoa a TSMC he tata ki te 75% noa iho.
Mō te mākete haurua-ā-ao whānui, kua heke ngā tukunga Logic ki te 65% o te tihi i te wā tono motuhake COVID-19. I ngā wā katoa, kua heke ngā tukunga wafer ā-hauwhā a TSMC mā te neke atu i te 1 miriona wafer mai i te tihi, me te reiti whakamahinga wheketere e kiia ana he tata ki te 75%.
I te tirohanga whakamua, kia tino ora ake ai te mākete haurua-ā-rangi o te ao, me tino piki ake ngā tukunga Logic, ā, kia tutuki ai tēnei, me tata te tere whakamahi o ngā whare whakarewa e arahina ana e TSMC ki tōna kaha katoa.
Nō reira, āhea rawa tēnei ka tupu?
Te Matapae i ngā Reiti Whakamahinga o ngā Whare Hanga Waihanga Nui
I te 14 o Hakihea, 2023, i tū te hui wānanga "Industry Focus Information" a te kamupene rangahau o Taiwan, a TrendForce, i te Grand Nikko Tokyo Bay Maihama Washington Hotel. I te hui wānanga, i kōrero te kaitātari o TrendForce, a Joanna Chiao, mō "Te Rautaki Ao a TSMC me te Tirohanga Mākete Semiconductor Foundry mō te tau 2024." I roto i ētahi atu kaupapa, i kōrero a Joanna Chiao mō te matapae i ngā reiti whakamahinga o te foundry (Pikitia
Āhea ka piki ake ngā tuku Logic?
He nui, he iti rānei te 8% o tēnei? Ahakoa he pātai ngawari tēnei, tae noa ki te tau 2026, ka pau tonu te 92% o ngā wafer e toe ana i ngā maramara haurua-kore-AI. Ko te nuinga o ēnei he maramara Logic. Nō reira, kia piki ake ai ngā tuku Logic, kia eke ai hoki ngā whare hangahanga nui e arahina ana e TSMC ki te kaha katoa, me piki ake te tono mō ngā taputapu hiko pēnei i ngā waea atamai, ngā PC, me ngā tūmau.
Hei whakarāpopototanga, i runga i te āhuatanga o nāianei, kāore au i te whakapono ka taea e ngā mīhini hangarau matihiko pērā i ngā GPU a NVIDIA te whakaora i a tātou. Nō reira, e whakaponohia ana kāore te mākete mīhini hangarau matihiko o te ao e tino ora ake tae noa ki te tau 2024, kāore rānei e whakaroahia tae noa ki te tau 2025.
Heoi anō, tera tētahi atu tūponotanga (e tino pai ana te tumanako) ka taea te whakakore i tēnei matapae.
Tae noa ki tēnei wā, ko ngā mea katoa e whakamāramahia ana mō ngā haurua-haurua AI e pā ana ki ngā haurua-haurua kua tāutahia ki ngā tūmau. Heoi anō, kei te kitea te ia o te tukatuka AI i runga i ngā pito (ngā taha) pērā i ngā rorohiko whaiaro, ngā waea atamai, me ngā papa.
Ko ētahi tauira ko te whakaaro o Intel mō te rorohiko rorohiko AI me ngā mahi a Samsung ki te hanga waea atamai AI. Mēnā ka rongonui ēnei (arā, mēnā ka puta he auahatanga), ka tere te horapa o te mākete haurua-ā-ringa AI. Inaa, e matapaetia ana e te kamupene rangahau o Amerika a Gartner, i te mutunga o te tau 2024, ka eke ngā tuku waea atamai AI ki te 240 miriona waeine, ā, ka eke ngā tuku PC AI ki te 54.5 miriona waeine (hei tohutoro anake). Mēnā ka tutuki tēnei matapae, ka piki ake te hiahia mō te Logic hou (e pā ana ki te uara me te rahinga o ngā tuku), ā, ka piki ake ngā reiti whakamahinga o ngā whare hangahanga pērā i a TSMC. Hei tāpiri, ka tino tere te tipu o te hiahia mō ngā MPU me te mahara.
Arā, ina tae mai tētahi ao pēnei, ko ngā haurua-whakawhiti AI te tino kaiwhakaora. Nō reira, mai i tēnei wā, ka aro atu ahau ki ngā au o ngā haurua-whakawhiti AI taha.
Wā tuku: Paenga-whāwhā-08-2024